January 2012
January 25, 2012 - Bloomberg:
"Apple Profit More Than Doubles on Iphone"
First Empire Asset Management’s Michael Obuchowski: “Those numbers are just unimaginable," said Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management, which has $4 billion under management, including Apple shares. " It's still an extremely well-managed company and they are showing that the product pipeline is sufficient even now to generate growth rates that are unrivaled."
December 2011
December 09, 2011 - Politico Morning Money:
"Breaking overnight: Limited euro deal, no 'bazooka' - Payroll tax deal: Mired in politics - Talker: Soros could score on MF Global bets - Cantor smacks down Bachus"
First Empire Asset Management’s Michael Obuchowski: “The dream case would be if they agreed to a 'fiscal compact' among all 27 EU countries, with only majority vote needed for major decisions, the 10 non-Euro countries agreeing to an accelerated euro adoption, tough rules for fiscal noncompliance (including control of national budgets) and ECB becoming a real Central Bank with the ability to issue Eurobonds and lender of last resort status."
"If you are a pessimist, the range of outcomes is infinite, with weak fiscal agreement only among 17 countries and no charges to ECB status as the most positive one. Lack of any agreement leading to a breakup of the EU would be the most negative potential outcome." Bottom Line: "Quite an achievement if 27 (or even 17) countries can agree on such drastic changes within such a short period of time."
December 02, 2011 - Politico Morning Money:
"Jobs day preview: Too optimistic? - Top story: Euro deal emerging - Senate Kills two payroll-tax bills - Talker: Gingrich praised GSE's as great model"
MICHAEL OBUCHOWSKI, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management: "The expectations are somewhat optmistic, which is always a cause for concern. ...I would like to see the Total Labor Force continue expanding, reflecting some increase in positive expectations of finding a job and people rejoining the labor force...In general, I always try to ignore the individual, very volatile data points and focus on longer term patterns."
"Unfortunately at the point, pretty much all the payroll numbers would need to match or exceed economists' expectations to maintain a reasonable positive trend...One of the more important trend variables that I will be looking at is the Average Weekly Hours data. Although we are a long way from 33.7 at the bottom of the recession, I would really like to see it moving higher and climb to 34.4 or maybe even higher."
November 2011
November 23, 2011 - Politico Morning Money:
"GOP debate react: Newt strong - Calm down about GDP revision - Breaking overnight: China factories slump - Top story: Fed plans stress tests"
First Empire Asset Management’s Michael Obuchowski: “As usual, there are caveats and one needs to deconstruct the GDP number to get a better picture. ... ‘Change in private inventories’ is a funny measure ... and has to be interpreted within the proper context. It is still an oversimplification, but in general, in the situation when personal consumption expenditures and other private domestic investment components are increasing, then lower inventories number suggests that the inventories were depleted due to increasing sales and they will have to be replenished with higher level of future production.
“Of course, if personal consumption and domestic investment components (other than investment in inventories) were declining, then the same drop in private inventories could suggest pessimistic expectations. ...The good thing is that one can spin it either way. The bad thing is that one can spin in either way.” Sounds like politics!
November 16, 2011 - Politico Morning Money:
"Obama: Worried about Europe/not afraid of China - M.M. Reporting: Markets wary of Supercommittee - Top talker: Gingrich earned at least $1.6M from Freddie Mac - What's next for Occupiers?"
MICHAEL OBUCHOWSKI, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management: “I think that the basic expectation is that of a cop out with some deal allowing them to pretty much do nothing and claim that enough was done to avoid the automatic cuts. It seems that all the politicians globally (or at least at the US and in Europe at the moment) are living up to the incredibly low expectations these days. ...
“I don’t think it would be helpful in terms of supporting economic recovery or equity markets, but I believe that a failure is pretty much priced into the expectations. Relative to the acute situation in Europe, our squabbling politicians became much less relevant for the time being.”
October 2011
October19, 2011 - Bloomberg:
"Apple Falls After Wait for IPhone Causes Missed Estimates"
Analysts may revisit projections that Apple will continue to grow at a record rate and exceed estimates, said Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management.
“That the company can maintain the growth rate that some of the analysts envision is not very realistic,” he said. “There will be a reevaluation of the analysts’ expectations.”
September 2011
September 21, 2011 - Politico Morning Money:
"Delicate dance for fed -- GOP urges fed not to act -- Biden banker meeting goes badly -- More Suskind push-back"
"M.M. MINUTE: DELICATE DANCE FOR FED – M.M. spoke with Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer at Empire Asset Management, about today’s closely watched statement from the FOMC: “The Fed has to be very careful not to disappoint the markets.... Even if they don’t make any decision on [switching to more long-dated asset purchases] they are going to have to be very careful to lean toward language that is not going to be overly disappointing. [Operation Twist] is pretty much baked in now. The market expects that they will be doing it or already started doing it. It wouldn’t be a quick fix but it would help in terms of not damaging areas of the economy that are very vulnerable to long-term rates.”
DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD – Obuchowski: “And it’s a very double-edged sword here. If they do something very aggressive that would suggest to many that the Fed believes the economy is doing really badly and they feel they have to do a huge intervention or we are really going to go down the drain.”
POLITICAL DAMAGE DONE? – Obuchowski said the worst damage in the U.S. has been self-inflicted. “Most of the damage done the last several months was by politicians.... Europe has a real sovereign debt crisis and may not be doing enough about it. But our politicians managed to CREATE a sovereign debt crisis where one never existed. That’s an amazing achievement that should be hard to challenge for years to come … People started to believe that we had enough crazy politicians to put the U.S. essentially into bankruptcy.”
September 02, 2011 - Politico Morning Money:
"Jobs day preview: Total wild card - Top talker: U.S. to sue big banks - White House fumed over Boehner move - Regulator probes high-frequency traders"
M.M. spoke with Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management, about the significance (or lack thereof) of today’s number: “We are in a very odd place right now. Nobody really knows how this number is going to come out. There has been so much uncertainty the last month. It could really come in anywhere and get plausibly explained away....
“Even if the number is very low the market reaction may be surprisingly positive given that it would be perceived as forcing [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke to do something more aggressive.... I don’t think things are quite as bad as people are trying to make them out to be. There is a lot of volatility in the high-frequency data right now and then you have just had this crazy circus in Washington the last few months.”
August 2011
August 31, 2011 - Bloomberg:
"U.S. Economy, Stocks, Investment Strategy"
Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management, and Rick Ackerman, editor of Rick's Picks, talk about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Obuchowski and Ackerman also discuss U.S. stocks and investment strategy. They speak with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television's "Taking Stock." (Source: Bloomberg)
August 24, 2011 - Wall Street Week:
"Obuchowski: We Are Seeing Something Positive"
Michael Obuchowski, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer for First Empire Asset Management, sits down with Wall Street Week’s Al Berkeley. Dr. Obuchowski discusses his six favorite leading economic indicators, their latest readings, and how this set of data has guided investment decisions.
May 2011
May 19, 2011 - Bloomberg:
"Takeda Agitates Investment Too Familiar With 40% Loss: Real M&A"
“Takeda has just gone absolutely nowhere,” said Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer at First Empire Asset Management in Hauppauge, New York, which manages more than $4 billion. “It’s a traditional knee-jerk reaction of a large pharmaceutical company without much growth to acquire somebody. You always have to question whether it’s really worth it.”
“It seems they’re attempting to change things, but these big acquisitions have a very poor track record,” said First Empire’s Obuchowski. “An acquisition could bring new products, a new team, new research. But it’s always a double-edged sword.”
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